tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283258643623412113.post1333844880062636847..comments2021-04-20T20:44:13.719-04:00Comments on 90 Miles From Tyranny : DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Statistically ImprobableMike Mileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14729229224106563792noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283258643623412113.post-12927519314331141652020-11-20T16:33:28.674-05:002020-11-20T16:33:28.674-05:00I've run numbers on the set of 17 bellwethers ...I've run numbers on the set of 17 bellwethers that have been going since 1956. Those have an overall rate of 88% accuracy, if the 1960 fraud is included, when they missed eight because the mafia was rigging it. Their second worst performance was six misses in 1968, where the winner later had to resign from office for - attempted election rigging.<br /><br />So that calibrates the bellwether "fraud-o-meter". Anything five or above is sketchy. This time, it registered a 14.<br /><br />So I tossed out 1960 ran 10-billion simulated elections with each county having a 90.5% probability of being correct. Getting only five right never occurs in the lifespan of the universe (17 billion years old).<br /><br />I ran it with 1960 included, so each county had an 88% chance of being correct. Again, getting only 5 fight never happens in the lifespan of the universe.<br /><br />Since the odds are so close to 90%, I treated it as a 10-sided dice problem, where 1 is wrong and any other digit is the correct call. The odds of rolling 14 ones with 17 dice are 197,281,461,461 to 1 - 197 billion to one odds against Biden winning in an unrigged trial.<br /><br />Someone suggested that maybe the bellwethers just aren't good predictors, so I ran hundreds of millions of election simulations to see how bad each bellwether had to be to get only three right 25% of the time. Each bellwether had to drop from 90% accuracy to 20% accuracy (each blowing four out of five races) because even horrible bellwethers are going to produce more correct results than three. There's no way for bellwethers to shift that much in just four years.<br /><br /><br /><br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09153360500886493949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283258643623412113.post-23482987733648204822020-11-20T15:47:18.551-05:002020-11-20T15:47:18.551-05:00No, it didn't miss in 2008. It was stolen. I...No, it didn't miss in 2008. It was stolen. I knew obama didn't win.Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04392444624210801173noreply@blogger.com