Sunday, April 5, 2020
Expert COVID Prediction of 50K Hospitalizations in NY by April 1 Turned Out To Be 400% Too High
As coronavirus models go, the one put forth by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, or IHME, has been one of the more optimistic ones.
According to The Washington Post, the model predicted 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the United States — lower than most models and lower than the White House estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
Even though it may be conservative, however, the IHME model might not have been conservative enough.
Take New York, the epicenter of the disease. According to the IHME model, the state would have needed 50,962 hospital beds on April 1, on the way to peak usage April 9. On that day, it would need 76,130 hospital beds.
Now, New York isn’t in particularly good shape when it comes to coronavirus, recording at least 1,867 deaths in New York City alone as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
However, the IHME model’s prediction of how many people would be hospitalized in the state by April 1 was much higher than what the actual number ended up being.
The model found that on April 1, New York would need 50,962 beds.
Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson noted that projection was far off — it was 400 percent too high, in fact.
This is the @IMHE_UW model for #Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? covid19.healthdata.org/projections
1,878 people are talking about this
While there could be an undercount given the nature of the disease and of testing, it’s unlikely that number has been...
Germany: Muslims Flagrantly Violate Quarantine Law to Congregate at Mosque in Berlin
Police fail to enforce social distancing as worshippers shout “Allahu Akbar.”
A video out of Berlin shows Muslim worshippers flagrantly violating Germany’s quarantine law and social distancing rules by congregating outside a mosque as police fail in attempting to disperse them.
The clip shows dozens of Muslims crowded outside the Dar-as-Salam mosque in Berlin’s immigrant-heavy Neukölln district as the Islamic call to prayer is broadcast on a loudspeaker.
The gathering is in total violation of Germany’s new lockdown law, which bans gatherings of more than two people and mandates social distancing.
At one point, a police officer tries to tell the crowd to disperse or at least stand further apart from each other, but he is totally ignored.
Large crowds are seen gathered both inside the gates of the mosque and outside spilling onto both sides of the street.
Some of the worshippers are wearing masks and gloves but most don’t have any protection.
At several points during the clip, the worshippers shout “Allahu Akbar.”
As the call to prayer ends, the worshippers walk away from the mosque and some of them are seen to be leaving in taxis and cars, proving they didn’t walk to the building.
Men are then seen hugging each other, totally ignoring social distancing measures in place to stop the spread of coronavirus.
At the end of the clip, six more police officers are seen to be doing nothing to...
5 Things I Found On Ancipient.com
What is Ancipient.com? It Is A Pro-American (Nationalist), Pro-Trump, Pro-American Exceptionalism, And Pro-Western Values automated news aggregation website.Ancipient.com is an automated, curated, rules based news aggregation website. If I wanted it to sound sexy, I could say it uses artificial intelligence to select news articles. It does not. It uses negative and positive keywords, data rules and curation to select news articles. When other news aggregaters have not updated any new news in hours, you can always depend on my trusty robot ancipient to work 24/7 to keep you updated.
Ancipient is a new word, it means:
an·cip·i·ent
/anˈsipēənt/
adjective
- in an initial stage of understanding; beginning to understand or learn."he could feel ancipient knowledge growing"
- (of a person) learning, and improving their understanding on a topic or topics.
Oh Yeah, The Links I Promised:
The 90 Miles Mystery Video: Nyctophilia Edition #250
Before You Click On The "Read More" Link,
Please Only Do So If You Are Over 21 Years Old.
If You are Easily Upset, Triggered Or Offended, This Is Not The Place For You.
Please Leave Silently Into The Night......
The 90 Miles Mystery Box: Episode #948
You have come across a mystery box. But what is inside?
It could be literally anything from the serene to the horrific,
from the beautiful to the repugnant,
from the mysterious to the familiar.
If you decide to open it, you could be disappointed,
you could be inspired, you could be appalled.
This is not for the faint of heart or the easily offended.
You have been warned.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)