How The Coronavirus Could Destabilize The Chinese Government And World

We can only hope this coronavirus crisis shall pass. But if it does not, the consequences for both China and the rest of the world could be momentous.

The first case of coronavirus in Wuhan, China, was reported Dec. 8. Since then, many have begun to wonder, “Is this the Big One?” Obviously, it is too soon to say. But if the virus continues to spread rapidly, the implications for international security and for the global economy could be staggering, ad not only in terms of global public health.

The virus is spreading easily between humans and currently has a basic reproduction number of about 3.5 to 5.5, meaning each infected person is spreading the virus to at least three other people. The World Health Organization, however, currently thinks the reproduction number is between 1.4. to 2.5, or each infected person is spreading the virus to two other people. That’s because the virus can lie dormant for days and may be mutating to spread more easily. In truth, nobody knows right now exactly how damaging the virus will be.

As we write, there have been almost 100 deaths and well more than 2,000 infections. The cases are concentrated on mainland China, but the virus may take hold outside China — already, there are five confirmed cases in the United States and several more in France, Japan, Australia, and southeast Asia.

We Still Have Much to Learn About the Coronavirus

The death toll will likely lag the number who have the virus, and a full picture of the virus’s lethality is not yet known. Yet a death rate of even 5 percent would be staggering, if the virus spreads easily enough. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1919 infected about 500 million people and ended up killing 50 to 100 million, up to 5 percent of the Earth’s population at the time. It wasn’t the extremely young and old who were hardest hit, either. For some reason, young adults were incredibly susceptible to the Spanish flu.

Of course, much remains unknown about the coronavirus. Accordingly, we can’t be certain about its political and economic effects. Nonetheless, it is not too early to begin considering what those effects might be. But the coronavirus plague might not turn out to be a passing phenomenon like the avian flu, which left little mark on world affairs. Even China’s President Xi Jinping has admitted China is facing a “grave situation,” and officials in China are saying the virus will spread further before it...

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