According to this farming insider, dramatically increased costs for fertilizer will make it impossible for many farmers to profitably plant corn this year. The following is an excerpt from an email that he recently sent me…
“Things for 2022 are interesting (and scary). Input costs for things like fertilizer, liquid nitrogen and seeds are like triple and quadruple the old prices. It will not be profitable to plant this year. Let me repeat, the economics will NOT work. Our plan, is to drop about 700 acres of corn off and convert to soybeans (they use less fertilizer, and we also have chicken manure from that operation). Guess what? We are not the only ones with those plans. Already there is a shortage of soybean seeds, so we will see how that will work out. The way I see it, there will be a major grain shortage later in the year, especially with corn. I mean, we are small with that. What about these people in the midwest who have like 10,000 acres of corn? This will not be good.”Once I received that message, I wrote him back with some questions that I had.
In response, he expanded on his comments in a subsequent email…
As for the farming, I see it getting bad. Things like fertilizer and liquid nitrogen have tripled and quadrupled in price. Yes commodity prices are up, but that certainly wont cover the new increased input costs. We are in NC, so while certainly not like the midwest, we still grow grain. The midwest of course will have these same higher input costs as well.
Corn for example, typically takes about 600 pounds of fertilizer per acre, plus 50 gallons of liquid nitrogen. Times that by many acres and thats a lot of money. Soybeans take much less. The plan for us, and most others around here, is to drastically cut corn acres and switch to soybeans. Problem is, there is apparently a soybean seed shortage because others have this plan as well. We were lucky enough to pre buy enough to do it. However, most people, especially younger farmers, or farmers where that is all they do, probably don’t have the money to front like that.I was stunned when I first read that.
The way I see it, a corn shortage will come. I guess there could possibly be a glut of soybeans, but remember that could depend on the seed being available. I guess there are other alternatives, maybe milo, oats, or barley. Of course the corn market is much larger. Think animal feed and ethanol. I mean for animals, soybeans are used too, but its a mix. What happens to the animal producers who depend on reasonably priced corn? I just don’t see how it can end well. I mean, even if we end up with plenty of soybeans, even a glut, then you have a busted market for that. I don’t know. There just isnt much history to base any of this on. I just see it hurting both grain farmers, and animal farmers, and also translating to more shortages and price increases for consumers who buy the end products.
Corn is one of the foundational pillars of our food supply.
If you go to the grocery store and start reading through the ingredients of various products, you will quickly discover that corn is in just about everything in one form or another.
So what is our country going to look like if a severe corn shortage actually happens?
I don’t even want to think about that.
Of course fertilizer prices are not just going through the roof here in the United States.
In South America, high fertilizer prices are going to dramatically affect coffee production…
Christina Ribeiro do Valle, who comes from a long line of coffee growers in Brazil, is this year paying three times what she paid last year for the fertilizer she needs. Coupled with a recent drought that hit her crop hard, it means Ms. do Valle, 75, will produce a fraction of her Ribeiro do Valle brand of coffee, some of which is exported.If you love to drink coffee in the morning, you will soon be paying much more for that privilege.
There is also a shortage of fertilizer. “This year, you pay, then put your name on a waiting list, and the supplier delivers it when he has it,” she said.
Over in Africa, fertilizer prices could result in...
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Is this why Bill Gates in the number one owner of farmland in the United States -- Covid societal reset, part 2?
ReplyDeleteI hate to burst your bubble but you don't need fertilizer to grow crops. Not at all and in fact it might be a huge benefit for a farmer to realize how much money they'll save without using fertilizer to steal yield a crop that is profitable because somebody's going to buy it since they're such a huge shortage. Duh. My grandfather farmed all his life and a shortage always meant one thing good prices for sale.
ReplyDeleteYou need the fertilizer for the high yield. Sure, you can grow without fertilizer, but the yield per Acre will be greatly reduced. See https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8103/Session1PardeyPresentation.pdf
DeleteTo help fix this the ethanol fuel business is going to be shut down. Sorry but when it takes a gallon of diesel to make a gallon of ethanol the business model was flawed from the start.
ReplyDeleteThere is a bigger problem here. The Nitrogen/Urea that is so critical in the production of corn is also used elsewhere. Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) is 32% Urea and all diesels since 2007 in the US are required to have DEF in there exhaust to cut down on soot emitted by a diesel engine. This will hit Trucking in a major way as the trucking costs will go up.
Bullshit. Fertilizer comes from crude oil and at over 80 dollars a barrel they will be processing it as fast as they can. Don't believe the hype. Eventually the inflation will stall this but not a shortage.
ReplyDeleteWhy what a coincidence; Massive fertilizer plant blaze, explosive chemicals force back Winston-Salem fire crews. Residents asked to leave homes up to a mile away.
ReplyDeleteWes Young , John Deem Jan 31, 2022 Updated Feb 1, 2022
https://journalnow.com/news/local/large-fire-visible-on-cherry-street-in-winston-salem/article_2928d86c-82f3-11ec-95ba-1f108077b580.html