90 Miles From Tyranny : Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November

With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.

Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average.



And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.

It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.

In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."

It’s very possible that Trump will win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If so, a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college. And speaking of "shocking", Camelot notes that as far as the Senate and House are concerned, it also appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate, especially if Trump has a strong night. On the other hand, the House is...


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2 comments:

DOB said...

It is the Senate where the battle will be fought. The democrats will use every fraud trick in the book to take the Senate. Once in control of the Senate, America is lost.

Is no one else watching the real battle ground? Is everyone distracted by the bright shiny object, aka the race for the White House?

Doom said...

Perhaps, if they use every trick and fraud they can muster. Otherwise this will make Reagan's landslide seem almost even. The only way Biden wins is if the election is so completely stolen that watchers are murdered, and those who question it are shot. Which... the FIB and CIA are on board, as is very possibly most of the .mil high command. Not sure about the grunts though. And they... would win. And cops are realizing the union is being dumped. They are between rocks and reality. Reality might not be soft, but it won't murder them and their families in their sleep unless they ignore it.