Like many, I spent the last few nights waking up at 2:03 A.M., no reason, then looking at my phone for news, any news, that might be positive for President Trump. I survived on Rush, Bongino, Mark Levin. When the news continued to be ugly, I even checked in on ridiculous bloggers promising that ballots were watermarked and D.J. (our household name for a president we love) was actually launching a sting on the Deep State.
Enough already. Stop the madness.
Hey, I have a degree in statistics, and I have some level of critical thought. If there is such pessimism in my tribe, I am not going along.
So today, I started to dig into the numbers, and as I did, I fought my confirmation bias at every step.
I realized that I, like millions of others, had been numbed into despondency by the overwhelming press, media, social media push to certify President-Elect Biden. (I put that in there so you can see how repellent it is.)
Hey guys, this thing is not only not over; it is scary for Biden. I mean really scary, and most of all, the media know it. Thus, the rush to get everyone in line with the narrative that a 78-year-old, early-dementia former V.P., who could not draw a crowd larger than a dozen, just beat D.J. in a fair election.
Process that for a moment.
Start with Pennsylvania. Biden, as of this writing, is at 290 electoral votes. Pennsylvania is 20.
I read the Justice Alito opinion, and it is pretty clear that he wants the after election night at 8:00 P.M. votes separated for a reason. Biden is going to lose at the Supreme Court, and they know it. Four justices already said the Pennsylvania Supreme Court cannot adjust voting rules. A new arrival, Justice Barrett, says she is there to apply the rules in the Constitution. OK, wanna bet she does?
Remove the after 8:00 P.M. ballots, and Biden loses Pennsylvania. Biden 270.
Let's visit Nevada. I have lots of friends in California who have condos in Nevada to evade state taxes. There are not a couple of people doing this; there are tens of thousands. Everyone knows it, and California seeks them out.
Our old pal Harry Reid knows it as well, and he apparently has them voting in droves in this election. Probably not a big D.J. constituency. Within 72 hours of the election, the Trump team found, validated over 3,500 of them. I do not suspect that Trump's people stopped counting.
Every one of these is a ballot reduction for Biden
Nevada, as of now, is well within reach for DJ and the Trump team — particularly when the California crowd is reduced. And a few of them may testify since a false vote is a very bad thing, with jail time if convicted. Maybe a...
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4 comments:
My job involves a lot of statistics, and while I'm not an expert, I also possess an education that included stats courses. That, combined with daily involvement with statistics, I'm quite familiar with the subject. That said, there were a lot of dubious numbers in the election results as they came in after the election looked like a Trump lock.
I am fairly confident that Trump will win in court, probably most of his challenges if not all of them. My only question is whether they have caught enough malfeasance to change the outcome. I'm hopeful but realistically I'm at the point where I think the glass is exactly half full/empty.
the whole thing is totally disgraceful. a group of high school kids could do better. Of course the mail in idea was a setup for fraud from the start. Trump should have urged his people to use it. If you got seven ballots in the mail, send back seven Trump votes. Didn't sign your name? Apparently that doesn't matter.
how about we throw out PA, and a few others ?
It’s funny that over 4 years all you heard was election integrity and RUSSIA. Now we are told to shut up and fall in line. Just imagine if this was the other way cities would be burned to the ground. Businesses didn’t board up their windows because of Trump supporters. These DemonRATS cried for 4 years and our leaders let them act like 2 yr olds throwing a temper tantrum. I really wish the Republican leaders would a pair but we have so many Rinos that only care about themselves and not their constituents (Rat Romney). If Trump loses a FAIR election that has every LEGAL vote counted I could live with it, I know I won’t be like these Communists and cry for 4 years. BUT if the Republicans don’t fight his now and stop Governors NOT the State Legislative from changing the voting laws the Republicans will NEVER have another president again. I can’t believe that I am actually thinking that could happen but I guess we should change the name of our country to the United Socialist States of America or the Banana Republic of America.
I think the shit is about to hit the fan....
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