The November 3, 2020, Presidential election data from California sets off alarm bells.
Election data generated by the natural voting process will closely match Benford’s Law predictions. (Benford’s Law, or the rule of leading digits, is used as an indicator of fraud in numerical data.) Of course, there can be exceptions, but Benford’s Law points to areas to investigate.
Benford’s Law predicts that for real, natural data, the frequency of leading digits (1 through 9) will occur at or near the following percentages of the transactions or tallies. Deviations from these predicted percentages should be investigated.
Precinct Tallies:
The difference in votes tallied is 5,104,121 in favor of Biden. Average precinct size is 1073 votes.
Biden had a nearly 2-1 official victory margin over Trump across the state. Here are detailed statistics for the statewide election, again, from Dr. Weber.
VBM is Votes by Mail.
Now, let’s apply Benford’s Law to identify possible fraud. Here is the statewide Benford chart, displaying frequency of precinct tallies’ leading digits for Biden and Trump, compared to Benford targets. The official data have separate tallies for votes cast In-Person and by Vote-by-Mail for each precinct. Given this, there are roughly twice the tallies than the number of active precincts in the state.
This chart looks almost normal. The Benford targets (i.e., the expected leading digit percentages) are shown by gray vertical bars. Trump’s precinct leading digit percentages are shown by the orange line; Biden’s are the blue line. If we look closely, however, the Biden line is low in leading digits for 2, 3 and 4, and high in leading digits for 1, 6, 7, 8, and 9.
The Chi-Squared test is a statistical tool that measures the correlation of two curves (two sets of sequential data) and provides a numerical value for the correlation, with zero percent indicating little or no correlation, and 100% indicating high correlation. The Chi-Squared test is calculated and provided to show the candidates’ precinct tally data’s closeness to the Benford target curve.
Now let’s isolate the data for sources of fraud. Here is the equivalent state-wide chart for In-Person votes only.
These In-Person precinct tallies’ leading digits for both Trump and Biden correlate very closely to the Benford targets. The average precinct in-person vote counts are 103 Biden, and 97 Trump. The 15,226 precinct tallies come in all sizes, and the tallies are distributed across the leading digits as Benford predicts. These In-Person votes represent 17.8% of all official votes tallied. There is little or no fraud indicated by Benford’s Law here.
Now, here is the Vote-by-Mail chart:
Now, let’s apply Benford’s Law to identify possible fraud. Here is the statewide Benford chart, displaying frequency of precinct tallies’ leading digits for Biden and Trump, compared to Benford targets. The official data have separate tallies for votes cast In-Person and by Vote-by-Mail for each precinct. Given this, there are roughly twice the tallies than the number of active precincts in the state.
The Chi-Squared test is a statistical tool that measures the correlation of two curves (two sets of sequential data) and provides a numerical value for the correlation, with zero percent indicating little or no correlation, and 100% indicating high correlation. The Chi-Squared test is calculated and provided to show the candidates’ precinct tally data’s closeness to the Benford target curve.
Now let’s isolate the data for sources of fraud. Here is the equivalent state-wide chart for In-Person votes only.
Now, here is the Vote-by-Mail chart:
3 comments:
Fascinating article for the math geek. "It just don't seem right" to use a saying I've heard all my life.
So you just debunked your own claim.
The outcomes are well within the projected margin of error in every case.
California is and has been for decades a far left red inkblot.
To such polarised places your theory shouldn't even apply and yet apparently it did, which would suggest voter fraud in favour of Trump rather than Biden.
Be careful how you churn statistics, they can be used against you.
aaaannd from out of nowhere comes this?
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