No vaccines, no epidemic.

India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia collectively have 2 billion people... and essentially no access to advanced Covid vaccines.

They are among the world’s most densely populated and poorest countries - fertile ground for Sars-Cov-2.

So the epidemic must be out of control from Karachi to Jakata, right?

Let’s take a look.

India:

Pakistan:

Bangladesh:

Indonesia:

It’s almost as if Covid-19 infection waves have a predictable natural course over a two- to three-month period - a sharp rise and nearly equally sharp decline.

It’s almost as if the virus then disappears as many, many people gain natural immunity - including many younger people who never knew they were infected at all because the coronavirus is barely dangerous to them.

It’s almost as if an English epidemiologist named William Farr noted the way epidemics waxed and waned more than 150 years ago.

Speaking of England, let’s take a look at the United Kingdom, which vaccinated more of its citizens with advanced vaccines against Sars-Cov-2 more quickly than any other big Western country.

The epidemic must be done there, right?

Well. This is weird.

Britain’s post-vaccination wave just doesn’t seem to want to end. New cases have been stuck at a very high level for five months. And deaths - although lower than they were at the peak of the winter wave - have not gone away and in fact are now rising.

It’s almost as if mass vaccinations of powerful but imperfect vaccines have made the epidemic worse in the United Kingdom (and across Europe and the United States) by interfering with the natural course of the epidemic and the development of natural immunity.

Almost.

I’m sure Pfizer and Moderna and the public health gurus have a better...

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