Future lab releases of Covid-19 variants are “likely”
When Omicron emerged, many scientists were bowled over by the lightning speed with which it spread. Although public health officials had warned that the original Covid-19 was highly contagious and fast-moving— it looked like it was standing still next to the Omicron variant.
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Now, some scientists examining the virus have concluded “vast” genetic mutations that likely occurred in a lab setting are what makes Omicron spread so quickly.
Omicron was first detected in Botswana, South Africa, reported to have been brought by a foreign delegation from a country officials will not identify, making it more difficult for outside observers to track its origin.
To many scientists, the genetic differences that made Omicron so quickly transmissible caused it to immediately stand out as unlikely to be a result of a natural evolution. Some note the “rapid accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant that enabled its outbreak.”
“There was a large number of mutations in this variant—many more than we would expect from the normal evolution of this virus,” said virologist Andrew Pekosz, Professor of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Importantly, many mutations occurred in the spike protein—the protein the virus uses to bind to and enter cells—which is the target of the vaccine.”
“It did not follow the trajectory of the outbreak,” says a researcher studying the virus for the US government who did not wish to be identified because he is not authorized to speak publicly on the topic. “One of the hypotheses is that there's been a cryptic, a completely separate outbreak going on,” or a “cryptic transmission” independent of mice. “Perhaps someone immune-compromised was infected, and active replication of the virus was maintained for a very long time.
But there is another disturbing theory— one considered more likely by some scientists working on the issue: that Omicron was bred in a lab and escaped.
It is possible “that serial passaging in mice was done in a laboratory somewhere, and add[ed] an accidental or on purpose release on the back end,” says a scientist with knowledge of the matter. “The short version is that the least likely scenario is that this was a natural human transmission chain that created the lineage and we just failed to detect it. The number and makeup of the changes would have required a vast number of infections to support.”
But how?
With Covid so prevalent, the statistical chances of a lab release are exponentially higher than they were in 2019. In the words of one scientist, “Every lab in the world is now working on Covid. It’s highly contagious and risky even with the best conrtrols. The odds of...
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