This poll, from The Trafalgar Group (TFG), shows Trump up by about five percent over Clinton—specifically, a lead of 4.97 percent—outside the survey’s 2.88 percent margin of error. Trump, at 49.13 percent, leads Clinton at 44.16 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 3.59 percent and the Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein gets 0.49 percent, while 2.63 percent are undecided. The survey was conducted from Oct. 27 through Nov. 1, with a sample size of 1,154 likely voters. That means the poll was partially conducted before FBI director James Comey announced he was reopening the criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email scandal.
Pollster Robert Cahaly, TFG’s senior strategist, said that he thinks there is a Brexit-like undercurrent of Trump support in key battleground states.
“It’s our belief that there is a significant ‘Brexit’ type undercurrent of support for Trump that many polls are not capturing,” Cahaly said. “We have been asking a second ballot test question to measure who survey takers believe most their neighbors will vote for. In our Ohio, Florida, and this North Carolina survey we find a consistent pattern of Clinton support dropping 5-6% while Trump support increases...Read More HERE
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