90 Miles From Tyranny : Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

Most people supporting President Trump in this election are confident that he will get more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, but they fear that fraudulent mail-in ballots will steal or delay the election results. After analyzing state voting laws -- and the 2016 electoral map -- I feel confident in saying that neither is a likely outcome.

First, only ten states mail ballots to every voter on their registration rolls. Those states have faced justified criticism for risking their results' integrity because voter rolls are outdated and make verifying identity difficult. But under the Electoral College system, this issue won't affect the outcome of the election. Eight of those ten states went blue in 2016, and the other two -- Utah and Arizona -- are likely to stay red. Vote by mail will not affect the outcome of the election because it is mostly done in states that Trump does not need to win.

The second group of concern is the 14 states, including Ohio, who mailed absentee ballot applications -- not ballots -- to all of their "registered voters."

Unlike blanket mailing of ballots, this system allows for voter verification and provides the state's Board of Elections with an accurate count of ballots to expect on Election Day -- which is handy if there are issues with mail delivery.

In all, 35 of the 45 states allowing absentee voting are doing so with a ballot request requirement. Widespread use means most election boards will have accurate information -- like who received a ballot before the election and how many are still in circulation -- when verifying their state's results.

So, unless the number of outstanding absentee ballots is greater than the margin of victory for Trump, they will not matter.

The third issue is the map itself. Due to the thin margin of victory in 2016, a big concern for supporters is the current situation in battleground states:

Trump won six -- Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and New Mexico -- while losing five -- Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine, and Colorado. Current polling offers multiple paths to victory for Trump assuming fair election results and retaining the red wall.

Trump's is well-positioned to pick up Minnesota and New Hampshire, meaning he could lose Pennsylvania and Michigan yet still win handily with...

Read more: HERE


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