90 Miles From Tyranny : DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Statistically Improbable

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Friday, November 20, 2020

DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Statistically Improbable

Trump campaign official Steve Cortes crunches numbers on bellwether counties, and the improbable nature of Biden's purported victory

In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump’s overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States’ bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory.

“Out of 3,000 counties in this country, there are 19 that have a perfect track record since 1980 of voting for the successful presidential candidate,” Cortes noted. “Donald Trump, on November 3, won 18 out of these 19 counties. Could these bellwether counties really have gotten it wrong all at the same time?”

The corporate media has largely been unable to explain Trump’s dominant performance in bellwether counties, offering up only vague references to “more racially diverse populations” in response to the counties’ sharp contrast with a purported Biden victory.

“Let’s look at these individual counties,” Cortes continued, and took a look at Vigo County, Indiana, which has only failed to vote for the projected winner once in over 100 years.

Cortes noted that in 2008, “Obama won this swing county in Indiana by 16 percent. This election, Donald Trump almost exactly flipped that even by the number. He won it by 15 percent.”

Valencia County, New Mexico, has held a perfect track record in presidential elections since 1952.

“It’s a majority Hispanic county, working-class place,” Cortes said. “In 2008, Obama won it by 8 percent. Again, like Vigo County, it flipped it almost exactly. In 2020, Donald trump won it by...

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Doom said...

No, it didn't miss in 2008. It was stolen. I knew obama didn't win.

Unknown said...

I've run numbers on the set of 17 bellwethers that have been going since 1956. Those have an overall rate of 88% accuracy, if the 1960 fraud is included, when they missed eight because the mafia was rigging it. Their second worst performance was six misses in 1968, where the winner later had to resign from office for - attempted election rigging.

So that calibrates the bellwether "fraud-o-meter". Anything five or above is sketchy. This time, it registered a 14.

So I tossed out 1960 ran 10-billion simulated elections with each county having a 90.5% probability of being correct. Getting only five right never occurs in the lifespan of the universe (17 billion years old).

I ran it with 1960 included, so each county had an 88% chance of being correct. Again, getting only 5 fight never happens in the lifespan of the universe.

Since the odds are so close to 90%, I treated it as a 10-sided dice problem, where 1 is wrong and any other digit is the correct call. The odds of rolling 14 ones with 17 dice are 197,281,461,461 to 1 - 197 billion to one odds against Biden winning in an unrigged trial.

Someone suggested that maybe the bellwethers just aren't good predictors, so I ran hundreds of millions of election simulations to see how bad each bellwether had to be to get only three right 25% of the time. Each bellwether had to drop from 90% accuracy to 20% accuracy (each blowing four out of five races) because even horrible bellwethers are going to produce more correct results than three. There's no way for bellwethers to shift that much in just four years.